QCI #040 - Job Market Has Cooled But Warming Up Soon

Let's Talk Economics!

Part I of II Part Series:

With the job market cooling in early 2026 compared to 2023 and 2024, spending fears due to unemployment are increasing.

This is normal, but the Central Bank is currently lowering the Federal Funds Rate.

So the unemployment rate should decline over the next few quarters.

The Unemployment Rate is a lagging indicator of the Federal Funds Rate.

If this is new to you, take a look at the Yield Curve and the never-ending US and Global Macroeconomic Cycle: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-yield-curve-peter-nunes/?trackingId=AMAdEQ6OSm%2BmyGCWIDRF7A%3D%3D

Link to the historic Unemployment Rate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis:https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14000024

Link to Part II:

QCI #041 - The Fed is Cutting the Federal Funds Rate

Let’s Talk Economics! Part II of II Part Series: Link to Part I: QCI #040 - Job Market Has Cooled But Warming Up SoonLet’s Talk Economics! Part I of II Part Series: With the job market cooling in early 2026 compared to 2023 and 2024, spending fears due to

Quant CompassPeter Nunes

Let's take a look at the historical Unemployment Rate:

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